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COVER STORY: Cities In Crisis
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Cities In Crisis

BT 200301 340X458In the science fiction classic “Foundation” by Isaac Asimov, Trantor, a planet completely dedicated to the administration of its empire, falls prey to a blockade which brings to a standstill the logistical system that keeps it fed and supplied. It’s an extreme example of what can happen if a city, or planet in this case, becomes so specialized that it is completely reliant on its logistics systems to deliver needed supplies. An actual case occurred in Paris in the 1870s when the city was under siege by the Germans. The city was cut off from France’s agricultural lands, and a city reliant on fresh vegetables and produce thus suffered greatly during the blockade. They even ate the animals in their zoo.

In the first few weeks of February 2020, as the risks of the COVID-19 virus became more apparent, Chinese cities were largely shut down. Citizens started to check the level of food stocks at home, made quick visits to their local grocery stores whose shelves started to look a bit bare, and waited nervously as they started to sense how reliant they were on distribution networks most had never thought much about.

ECONOMIC ENGINES
Economist and urban planners have been touting the urbanization of China as one of its main economic drivers for the past 30 years and probably for the next 30 too. Vegetable plots and farmland directly adjacent to cities have been replaced as more dense and higher value buildings are constructed and outlying villages are subsumed into urban conglomerations. Urbanization brings jobs to people with a wide range of skill sets from CEOs and managers to secretaries and clerks, as well as to cooks and cleaners. Villages have a hard time supporting artists and musicians, but in big cities, if they can achieve success, they might find themselves in concert halls and art galleries and paid handsomely for their skills. The trade-off is that the agriculture that supports these urban centres becomes more specialized, located further away, and reliant on a complex logistical system.

Wuhan Yangtze River Tunnel is blocked with a barrier in WuhanWuhan Yangtze River Tunnel is blocked with a barrier in Wuhan

THE BASICS
The virus and the shutdown of cities has caused the government to inventory and prioritize services. The food didn’t stop flowing to supermarkets, the hospitals didn’t close, the garbage continued to be picked up, and the buses and subways continued to run, even if on reduced schedules. The police and firemen still reported for duty as most of the rest of us sat at home and used technology to inform and entertain us. This wasn’t accidental; government officials had prioritized services so that while most of the services in the cities could be shut down to contain the virus, some things, especially food, needed to continue to flow.

As the threat of the virus started to pass, the government was faced with the challenge of getting the economy moving again. At this stage, it became apparent just how interlinked things were. Big manufacturing facilities could restart, but soon, their smaller suppliers would need to open up as well. More workers being spread across the community means that supermarkets will be inadequate and restaurants across the city will need to start re-opening. With even more people out and about, drugstores and coffee shops need to start reopening, and eventually we can get back to normal. At this point not only government officials, but also company management have a much clearer view of their own supply chains, their choke points and their priorities.

A sales clerk wears a mask as she waits for customers at a hat shop in BeijingA sales clerk wears a mask as she waits for customers at a hat shop in Beijing

VIRTUAL CITIES
For years there have been people calling themselves digital nomads traveling the globe while still holding relatively consistent employment, often as freelance writers, photographers or computer programmers. During this most recent crisis, a larger number of us also discovered we could still do our jobs regardless of where we were. Countless meetings were held with participants at locations spread around the globe. Students dialled into virtual classrooms and communicated with classmates in different time zones. We learned that in some ways, although cities have brought us great synergy, technology sometimes makes those gains a little less important. This is unlikely to be the end of cities, but it is likely to make many individuals and companies consider how much of the status quo is, in fact, fixed.

Physics teacher Zhao Chuanliang conducts online tuition for students at a high school in Zhengzhou Henan ProvincePhysics teacher Zhao Chuanliang conducts online tuition for students at a high school in Zhengzhou, Henan Province

CITIES INNOVATE
Problems often cause cities to innovate. The dangers of raw sewage helped drive the development of London’s famous sewers systems just as its crowded streets allowed for the development of its dense tube network. Singapore’s dense island location has encouraged it to build up large reserves of rice and other commodities, as well as build a fresh water reservoir right in plain sight that expanded the waterfront in the heart of its CBD. Los Angeles and Beijing both already rely on water transported in huge systems that bring water over long distances to otherwise arid locations. Chinese cities will also change as a result of pressures, maybe even directly, from this COVID-19 virus. China quickly enacted a number of people-tracking phone apps to try and reduce the further spread of the disease, although due to privacy concerns many hope they will be short-lived. I expect that food depots and warehouses will get a fresh look, and a review of food and energy delivery systems will take place at city level.

To enter an apartment complex people must first have their health code scannedTo enter an apartment complex, people must first have their health code scanned

CONCLUSION
Cities have been and will continue to be a major economic driver of China’s economy. In fact, as China’s rising wages increasingly push low-wage manufacturing to other countries, cities will only become more vital to the economy. And for cities to work, a whole host of people and services are necessary. We can draw back to a very minimum level of operations during a crisis, but once a few firms start to operate, our highly connected economy will need most people to go back to work in a short span of time. Technological developments will mean that remote work can also keep people connected to vibrant economies even if they aren’t physically in the cities, but those people will not be able to take advantage of the full spectrum of benefits that cities offer.

Companies around the world which were severely impacted by the events in China in early 2020 will hasten to diversify their supply chains and manufacturing. They may also be more welcoming of remote employees and may question their real estate costs; do they really want to maintain such a large office when workers could function for weeks without actually using it? So, while the COVID-19 virus has served to refocus our attention on the priorities, it has also created a challenge for China. Previous health crises and environmental challenges have pushed cities to improve and innovate; this one will be no exception.

A robot with a dispenser for hand sanitizer goes around a shopping complex as the country is hit by an outbreak of the novel coronavirus in ShanghaiA robot with a dispenser for hand sanitizer goes around a shopping complex as the country is hit by an outbreak of the novel coronavirus, in Shanghai

在过去30年,经济学家及城市规划这一直在吹嘘中国的城市化是主要的经济驱动力之一。在2020年初,随着新冠病毒的风险逐渐增加,中国的大量城市都陷入封闭。人们开始前所未有的依赖销售网络。病毒的流行和城市的封闭导致政府开始确定所提供服务的优先顺序,在封锁城市中大部分服务业的同时,让食品生产等继续流通。随着病毒的威胁逐渐缓解,政府需要让经济重新开始运转。

在这场病毒带来的危机中,人们仍然可以通过虚拟社区来完成学业和工作。虚拟城市为我们带来了巨大的协同效应,技术的发展使得远程工作也可以让人们与充满活力的经济保持联系。健康危机和环境挑战往往还会促使城市进行创新。中国的城市也将发生许多直接的变化。世界各地的公司也将加快供应链和制造的多元化。

michael
Author: Michael Hart is the Managing Director of Griffin Business Management www.griffinbiz.com a real estate related consulting firm with offices in Tianjin.

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