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You Won’t Be Able to Buy a Gas-Guzzler in China After 2050
Published on: 2020-07-02
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VCAR 01No one will be able to buy a new gas-guzzling car in China by 2050, according to a recent think tank forecast.
 

The Beijing- and Los Angeles-based Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation predicted that China will phase out conventionally powered models by the second half of the century as new-energy vehicles (NEVs) take over the market for new cars, according to an assessment report that the think tank released Tuesday.


According to the center’s latest projections, new private internal combustion engine vehicles — those that run on gasoline or diesel — will no longer be on the market in China by 2045. And domestic manufacturers will stop making all internal combustion engine vehicles by 2050, the center predicted. By that time, gas- and diesel-powered vehicles will make up about 5% of automobiles on the road.

CAR 02China has been keen to make NEVs far more prevalent as it seeks to curb its severe air pollution. Thanks to government incentives, the country has become one of the fastest-growing markets for NEVs. Sales grew rapidly over the last decade, peaking at 1.3 million in 2018 before dipping to 1.2 million last year.


There are two main ways to get individuals to buy NEVs. The first is to market small electric cars designed simply to get drivers from point A to point B. The other is to offer models priced higher than 200,000 yuan, like Tesla, which offer a more luxurious driving experience.
 

China released a draft plan last year that suggested raising its 2025 sales target for NEVs to 25%, but no follow-up announcement has been made.
 

国内传统燃油汽车将在2050年退出新车市场


北京、上海、深圳、海南和雄安应该率先禁售传统燃油车,公交车、网约车等车辆“禁燃”可在2020年实现,私家车应在2030年实现。第三方智库机构能源与交通创新中心6月30日发布《中国传统燃油汽车退出进度研究与环境效益评估》提出上述建议。


电动化是汽车行业转型方向,各国政府出于降低碳排放等诉求也持鼓励态度,激进派甚至提出设置硬性禁售燃油车时间表。中国政府曾表态着手研究,权威人士此后称,禁售燃油车不宜一刀切,应分领域、分行业、分车型逐步推进。


《报告》对传统燃油车退出持乐观态度,预计中国传统燃油汽车将在2050年退出新车市场(私家车将于2045年退出),届时存量市场上的传统燃油汽车比例预计在5%左右。《报告》称,传统燃油车的替代车型主要以新能源汽车和混合动力车型为主,辅以部分天然气等清洁能源汽车。
 

中国汽车技术研究中心政研中心副主任刘斌认为,新能源汽车向私家车领域推广主要靠两端。一端是小型电动车,主打关注性价比的人群,其价格便宜使用成本低,又能满足基本需求。另一端则是价格在20万元以上的车型,这类产品以特斯拉为代表,能够提供与众不同的产品体验。

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