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Home quarantines during epidemic bring no baby boom as areas in China report fewer newborns
Published on: 2021-02-08
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Contrary to the public's predictions, home quarantine during the COVID-19 epidemic did not result in a baby boom in 2020, according to latest data released by some cities in China, which showed a significant drop in the number of newborns.
 

Data released by the local health authority of Wenzhou, East China's Zhejiang Province, shows that the number of newborn babies in 2020 hit a new low in the past six years.
 

The number of live births in 2020 in Guangzhou, South China's Guangdong Province, fell to 195,500, down by nearly 100,000 compared with that in 2017, reaching the lowest level in the past 10 years, local media said. The number of live births in Guangzhou peaked due to the birth policy adjustment but then dropped rapidly, reports said.
 

The health authority of Ningbo, Zhejiang Province revealed data last September showing that in the first half of 2020, the number of births in the city decreased by 19.24 percent year on year, and the second-child rate decreased by 2.5 percent. The authority estimated that the number of births in 2020 will be about 36,000, a significant drop compared with 2019.
 

Demographers said an important reason for the decrease in births is the decrease of women of childbearing age.
 

They added that the number of marriages has also fallen rapidly in recent years. Compared with 2019, there were significantly fewer women of childbearing age in 2020.
 

There has also been a decline in fertility in recent years due to the heavy economic burden brought about by the urbanization process, the pressure of raising a child and economic factors.
 

While people have spent more time at home during the epidemic and couples have more opportunities to have sex, the uncertainties brought by the epidemic have exerted negative effects on fertility, demographers said.
 

During the epidemic in 2020, some people's incomes decreased or their jobs were not secure while their living expenses may have increased, so they feel more economic pressure.
 

The special period has also brought with it restrictions. For example, during the epidemic, some people may have felt that it was very troublesome to go to the hospital for examinations. Also, people may have been concerned more about their health condition during the COVID-10 public health emergency, the demographers said.
 

All of these factors have triggered concerns about fertility and affected behavior, they noted.
 

2020新生儿数量断崖下跌

很多人都认为2020年新生儿数量肯定的大增。因为从1月开始就被疫情憋家里,于是有足够多的时间造人。
 

十月怀胎,到年底必然迎来生育高峰。事实是这样么?
 

最近,广州、温州、宁波等几个发达城市公布了2020年新生儿数量,结果让所有人大跌眼镜。
 

广州2020年新生儿数量为19.55万,较2017年下降了近10万,达到近10年来最低水平。
 

温州, 58家助产机构住院分娩活产数为73230人,而2012年的新生儿超过了14万,下跌了50%。
 

宁波,预计2020年全市人口出生数约为3.6万人,比2019年下降20%。
 

基于此,很多人预测2020年中国的新生儿数量可能只有1300万,相比2019年的1465万再降160多万。
 

相比2017年的生育高峰,再降200万。
 

此前,有机构预测中国的人口将于2028年正式进入负增长。现在看来,这个拐点可能会提前到来。
 

那么,为何2020年新生儿为何没有出现预期的上涨,反而断崖式下跌呢?
 

首先,疫情让生活压力倍增。疫情导致经济持续下滑,直到第四季度GDP才转正,就业才有所恢复。但是很多行业遭遇巨大打击,收入无法恢复到疫情之前。
 

这让生活压力加大,人变得更加焦虑。同时,夫妻都窝在家里不能出门,鸡毛蒜皮的矛盾开始增加,甚至有报道称,全国各地因疫情导致离婚率攀升。
 

而且疫情下,怀孕后的产检、分娩的安全都是不得不考虑的问题。因此,疫情并不是造人的催化剂,反而是一盆拔凉的冷水,让生育率再次降温。

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