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China warns of bubbles in foreign markets and property
Published on: 2021-03-03
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China’s top banking regulator said he’s “very worried” about risks emerging from bubbles in global financial markets and the nation’s property sector, sparking fresh concerns about further tightening in the world’s second-biggest economy.
 

Bubbles in U.S. and European markets could burst because their rallies are heading in the opposite direction of their underlying economies and will have to face corrections “sooner or later,” Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and Party secretary of the central bank said at a briefing in Beijing on Tuesday.
 

China’s financial regulators are walking a fine line of trying to curb risks at home while limiting disruptions from abroad as the economy opens wider to foreign capital. The CBIRC vowed in January to stay “ahead of systemic risks,” after capping bank lending to the property market, slashing shadow banking activities and claiming victory in unwinding a wild expansion in peer-to-peer lending.
 

Regulators are watching capital inflows into China, where the economy is still growing and interest rates are higher, although the size and speed of such inflows remain controllable at the moment.
 

China’s top financial regulator also weighed in on the fintech sector, saying platforms that offer banking services must comply with the same capital requirements as traditional lenders to curb risks. The regulator has set different deadlines for each type of service, with the longest grace period of no more than two years, Guo said, without elaborating.
 

Guo also said bubbles in China’s property market remain relatively big, with many people buying homes for investment or speculative purposes, which is “very dangerous.”
 

A strong economic recovery, combined with a credit surge and a renewed fear of missing out have stoked buyer enthusiasm across China’s largest cities despite stricter curbs this year. Authorities have responded with a slew of policies to fine tune the industry, including a new mechanism on bank lending for real estate and fresh land-bidding rules designed to curb high-flying land costs.
 

Still, home prices in the secondary market, which faces less government intervention, gained the most in 18 months in January, official data showed last week. Existing-home prices of certain popular projects in Shanghai surged more than 30% last year, according to China Real Estate Information Corp.
 

中国金融高层对国外资产泡沫破裂很担忧

受疫情冲击欧美主要发达经济体经济负增长,但金融市场却高位运行,和实体经济严重背离,对此中国银保监会主席郭树清周二再度表达了对国外金融市场泡沫破裂的担忧;与此同时全球流动性增加也导致去年经济“一枝独秀”的中国吸引了更多外资流入,不过他明确目前规模和速度都在可控范围他在国新办发布会上并强调,中国会继续鼓励外资金融机构进入中国共同发展,将进一步降低外资准入门槛,基本上实现和中资一样的待遇,“其实现在没有什么领域不开放的”。
 

而去年中国推出一系列金融支持实体经济举措,为经济强力输血同时必然导致不良贷款的上升。郭树清表示,今年将保持不良贷款处置力度不减,但现在尚无明确指标;而去年的支持举措有些是会延续的,不过今年贷款利率可能会上升,但总体还是比较低。
 

他指出,去年欧美发达国家、疫情严重的国家和一些发展中国家都采取了积极的财政政策和极度宽松的货币政策,但是力度上、后果上可能要考虑的更多一些,因为毕竟还会产生一些副作用,现在看这些副作用已经逐步显现。
 

“金融市场应该反映实体经济的状况,如果和实体经济差别太大,就会产生问题,迟早会被迫调整,所以我们很担心金融市场,特别国外金融资产泡沫哪一天会破裂。”他表示。另外,由于经济已经高度全球化,流动性增加之后外国资本流入中国数量增长确实比较快,不过目前来看规模和速度还是在可控范围。郭树清称中国正在继续研究怎么采取更有效的措施,一方面鼓励资本要素跨境流动,越来越开放,另一方面又不能造成国内金融市场太大的波动。中国去年经济增速2.3%,成为全球唯一实现正增长的主要经济体。联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)1月末的一份报告显示,即便2020年全球爆发疫情,但中国仍是全球外国直接投资(FDI)最大流入国,吸引了1,630亿美元资金流入。

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