Underlying deflationary pressure has risen in China, with the Consumer Price Index easing to the lowest 0.8 percent last month since November 2009.

 

The trend was even more evident in the decelerating contraction of the Producer Price Index. PPI deflation intensified to a 4.3 percent decline from 3.3 percent in December.

 

This is the first time that Zhou Xiaochuan has faced such intense deflationary pressure during his 13-year tenure as the country's central bank governor. The governor, who approved the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package - worth about $586 billion at the time, when the yuan was weaker - in the wake of the global financial crisis in 2008, may be more cautious this time.

 

Subdued expansion of broad money supply, a glut in the property market and a decline in transport costs caused by plunging oil prices, along with massive excess industrial capacity, are all signs of deflation. They remind policymakers to react appropriately to the situation.

 

Premier Li Keqiang is expected to announce the annual CPI and GDP targets in the Government Work Report during the two-week National People's Congress, which opens on March 5. Market observers speculate that the CPI target may be cut to 3 percent from 3.5 percent previously.

 

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