China's trade surplus in 2010 will fall steeply, commerce ministry spokesman Yao Jian told a news conference on Monday.
He also said the yuan had been rising against the euro and that this would have an impact on Chinese exports.
China recorded a $196.1 billion trade surplus last year.
After narrowing surpluses in the first months of 2010, including a deficit in March, many economists believe the country could be on course for a surplus of roughly $100 billion this year.