China can completely open its borders when the vaccination rate reaches at least 80 percent by the end of the year, says China's top respiratory expert Zhong Nanshan.
When the rate exceeds 80 percent, Zhong said, it will effectively prevent Covid [from spreading], and especially prevent severe illness, and most infected patients would have no symptoms or just suffer mild symptoms. He said he expects the rate to reach 80 percent by year-end.
Vaccination also effectively drops fatality rate of the disease, which is 1-2 percent worldwide, dozens of times of flu. When fatality rate is low enough, absolute most people who get COVID-19 will recover rather than one or two in every hundred could die, Zhong said.
Zhong estimated the COVID-19 will slowly go through the process of dropping fatality rate and low infection rate, and low fatality rate and high vaccination rate is the threshold for opening up.
China’s vaccination rate will reach 80 percent by year’s end, and the question to be address is how to maintain an effective protection rate which naturally declines after half a year. “That is what we are doing now -- to develop more vaccines and to research on how to boost immunity,” Zhong said.
