Don't worry, China is still a buyer—just on its own terms.
April's trade data for the country contain little to galvanize fractious global commodity markets. Oil imports of more than five million barrels a day remain strong but don't display much growth from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, metals demand was weak, with a 40% year-to-year fall in copper imports particularly unimpressive.
One month's data do not a sustained slowdown make, however. Rather, April's numbers likely reflect smart buying decisions. Chinese firms tend to accumulate raw materials when prices dip and run down those stocks when prices are high.
Imports of iron ore and copper hit record highs in the first half of 2009 as prices hammered by the global financial crisis gave firms an opportunity to bulk up on cheap supplies. After a strong run since then, the recent dip in prices should bring Chinese buyers back into the market. In theory, that should put a floor under prices. Colin Hamilton of Macquarie calls Chinese demand the great insurance policy for the metals markets.
The lesson of the financial crisis, however, is that even sure things can turn out to be fragile.
Looking ahead, the wrench in China's works is its property sector. An overhang of homes after two years of frenetic building, combined with controls on speculators eating into demand, will surely result in a sharp slowdown in building activity in the months ahead.
To keep the cement mixers churning, the government is promising investment in the construction of 10 million affordable homes over the course of the year. Even half of that quantity would be enough to underpin strong construction activity and metals demand.
But the transition from private to public investment will not be smooth. Duncan Innes-Ker, an expert on the Chinese economy at the Economist Intelligence Unit, thinks real-estate investment will grow at 14% in the second half of the year, from the current level of 34%.
For commodities bulls, the strength of Chinese demand has become an article of faith. If property investment slows, that faith will be tested.
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